文稿:傲雪
图片:网络
翻译:Darren
编辑:Jayden
8月19日新西兰绿色建筑委员会消息，新分析显示新西兰化石天然气严重短缺，能源账单增加，政府必须采取行动减少需求。
新西兰绿色建筑委员会首席执行官安德鲁·伊格尔斯（Andrew Eagles）表示，对环境部最新的化石天然气需求模型和MBIE最新的化石天然气产量预测的新分析显示，除非政府采取行动减少需求，否则目前的短缺将在未来几年变得非常严重。
“比较两组官方预测，目前化石天然气无法满足供应的情况将激增。五年后，产量将仅占需求的63%。十年后，这一比例将仅为43%。这将意味着家庭、企业、工业和发电机的价格飞涨。最无力支付的家庭将被迫没有暖气，即使他们没有其他供暖。这将迫使更多依赖天然气的行业停止生产，从而降低就业和出口收入。由于天然气发电设定了电力成本，这意味着家庭和企业的电价将更高。
“新发现的天然气无法填补缺口。尽管投资了数十亿美元，但现有油田的产量低于预期。由于缺乏发现，禁令之前的海上勘探正在枯竭。如果进行新的勘探，如果有新的发现，至少需要十年的时间才能大规模生产，这可能仍然不够。进口化石天然气将需要数十亿美元的基础设施投资，增加排放，并使新西兰面临国际价格冲击。按照目前的国际价格，到2035年，从海外购买天然气以弥补国内供应缺口将花费110亿至140亿美元。
“政府现在需要通过新的减排计划采取行动，以减少需求，并确保新西兰人不会因短缺而陷入困境。建筑物中的空间和水加热是化石天然气的重要消耗者，化石天然气可以很容易地被电加热所取代。资本成本是唯一的障碍，政府可以通过推动“温暖的弥猴桃家园”计划和恢复GIDI资金来缓解这一障碍。
“改善建筑隔热性能将减少供暖需求并减少峰值电力需求，而化石天然气厂通常会满足这一需求。可以鼓励住宅太阳能取代化石天然气发电的需求。政府需要紧急出台新措施，以激励绝缘和太阳能发电″。
“迅速采取行动，用电力代替化石天然气供暖，减少供暖需求和用绝缘材料的峰值电力需求，并促进太阳能发电，这意味着剩下的化石天然气可以用于至关重要的行业″。
“什么都不做，希望能找到更多的化石天然气，这不是一个负责任的策略;现在采取行动减少对化石天然气的需求就是答案“伊格尔斯先生说。
From the New Zealand Green Building Council, 19 August.New analysis shows massive shortage of fossil gas, higher energy bills – Government must act to reduce demand
New analysis of the Ministry for the Environment’s latest fossil gas demand modelling and MBIE’s latest fossil gas production forecasts show the current shortage will become cavernous in coming years, unless the Government acts to reduce demand, says New Zealand Green Building Council CEO Andrew Eagles.
“Comparing the two sets of official projections, the current inability of fossil gas to meet supply will balloon. In five years, production will be just 63% of demand. In a decade, it will be just 43%. That will mean skyrocketing prices for families, businesses, industry, and electricity generators. The families least able to pay will be forced to go without, even if they have no alternative heating. It will force more gas-dependent industries to cease production, costing jobs and export revenue. Because gas generation sets the cost of electricity, it will mean higher power prices for homes and businesses″.
“New gas discoveries will not plug the shortfall. The existing fields are producing less than expected despite billions in investment. Offshore exploration prior to the ban was drying up due to lack of finds. If new exploration is undertaken and if new discoveries are made, it will be at least a decade until they are producing at scale, which likely still wouldn’t be enough. Importing fossil gas would require billions of investment in infrastructure, increase emissions, and expose New Zealand to international price shocks. At current international prices, buying gas from overseas to make up the domestic supply shortfall would cost $11b-$14b by 2035.
“The Government needs to act now through the new Emissions Reduction Plan to reduce demand and ensure that Kiwis are not left in the cold as the shortage worsens. Space and water heating in buildings is a significant consumer of fossil gas that can be readily replaced with electric heating. Capital cost is the only barrier, which the Government can alleviate through boosting the Warmer Kiwi Homes programme and restoring GIDI funding.
“Improving building insulation will reduce demand for heating and reduce peak electricity demand, which is often met with fossil gas plants. Residential solar energy can be encouraged to replace the need for fossil gas generation. The Government needs to urgently introduce new measures to incentivise both insulation and solar power”.
“Acting quickly to replace fossil gas with electricity for heating, reduce the need for heating and peak power demand with insulation, and boosting solar electricity generation will mean what fossil gas is left can be used in industries where it is essential″.
“Doing nothing and hoping for more fossil gas to be found is not a responsible strategy; acting now to reduce the need for fossil gas is the answer,” says Mr Eagles.
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